Adaptation to the Effects of Drought and Climate Change in Zambia

Climate change is set to increase food insecurity in agro-ecological zones (AEZ’s) I and II in Zambia. AEZ 1, which stretches along the Southern border, has the least rainfall. Within these regions, since the late 1980s, there has been a tendency for the later onset and earlier withdrawal of rains, as well as more frequent droughts.  In the last seven years of this decade, Zambia has had droughts in the rainy seasons of 2000/01, 2001/02 and 2004/5. According to the Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) report of June 2005, 120,000 tons of food was required to feed some 1.2 million people before the next harvest in March 2006. The average annual rainfall for the pilot region is less than 650 mm - the lowest recorded being around 400mm - which makes it one of the driest parts of Zambia.  The average annual potential evapo-transpiration ranges from 1394mm to 1892mm - making this larger than precipitation in Zambia.  This means that Zambia has a precipitation deficit of up to 1100mm pa. 

Floods are becoming more widespread too: over half of Zambia’s districts affected in the last few years – 2005/6, 2006/7 and 2007/8 being the most recent - some for the first time in history. The impacts of these droughts have been widespread crop failure, outbreaks of human and animal diseases, displacement of human populations and destruction of property and infrastructure.  In 2004/5 and 2006/7, the affected population sizes were 1.2 m and 1.4m people respectively.

With very little infrastructure for water collection, Zambia is overwhelmingly dependent on rainfall. Water needs are met through boreholes and wells where available, or alternatively, rivers . Less than 5% of arable land is under irrigation. Climate change projections outlined in the NAPA  point to an increase in temperature and a change in patterns of rainfall, leading to prolonged droughts and localized flooding.  Experience shows that key crop varieties, such as maize, would not mature due to the shortening of the growing season in agro-ecological regions I and II, undermining food security in the region.  Assessments of the economic costs of climate change on agriculture in Zambia undertaken by the World Bank, with support from FAO, IWMI, Yale University and the University of Pretoria, indicate that AEZ I and II will exhibit strong water deficits at critical periods of the cropping calendars, resulting in severe yield decreases for specific crops such as maize. 

The NAPA highlighted that due to the shortening of the rainy season and higher seasonal temperatures, areas suitable for staple crops such as maize are likely to fall by more than 80%. AEZ I is already a marginal area for growing maize due to low annual rainfall.  Climate change is super-imposed on  unsustainable land-use practices such as forest clearing for agriculture and charcoal production, and combined with poor livestock management systems  have caused severe land degradation . Temperature increases are likely to degrade the quality of rangeland for cattle, thereby leading to reduced productivity of cattle.  The AIACC study of 2002 showed that the communities in Southern Province depend mostly on cattle for their livelihood and also for draught power.

Efforts by the government to promote early warning systems have not paid dividends because of weak capacity to supply and use seasonal weather forecasting to planning systems at all levels – national, district, and local communities. Furthermore, forecasts generated are not disseminated to relevant stakeholders - water managers, farmers, extension officers, and other agricultural/hydrological stakeholders - because of a lack of institutional processes for effective distribution. 

Food security is a priority in the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP).  The FNDP recognizes the threats to livelihoods brought about by climate variability and change, and it also recognizes the need for adaptation.  It ‘delegates’ to the NAPA the responsibility to implement priority adaptation responses The recently approved National Policy on Environment makes specific reference to the threats to soil and water imposed by climate change.  The Zambian NAPA identifies the provision of irrigation/water management, sustainable land management and the promotion of a stronger role of early warning systems for adaptation as the top priorities for facilitating better management of climate-related risks.  The proposed LDCF intervention will complement current agricultural policies and development support programmes. UNDP will play a pivotal role in project support by co-financing the project, but also by assessing the best national implementation modality, supervising implementation and mitigating project risks. Project implementation will be coordinated through the UNDF outcome 1: food security working group 

UNDP is a partner in the Joint Assistance Strategy for Zambia for aid effectiveness, aligned behind Zambia’s Fifth National Development Plan.  The LDCF project will seek opportunities to ‘bolt on’ to other relevant initiatives for broader adaptation mainstreaming, for example the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme The following table sets out agricultural sector programmes that will be assessed for adaptation value.  The interventions with the expected highest adaptation returns will be incorporated into the NAPA implementation project.