Strengthening Climate Information and Early Warning Systems in Gambia

Many countries in Africa suffer from low rates of development. In particular, Gambia is in the lowest 20% of countries worldwide, ranked by both Gross National Income (GNI per capita) and the 2011 United Nations Human Development Index (ranked 168 out of 187 countries)[1]. These countries are particularly vulnerable to climate-related shocks (either to the economy or to unprotected populations), which threaten to undo years of development assistance and asset accumulation, especially within poor populations. One way to help mitigate the impact of these climate-related shocks is to warn populations, businesses and governments in advance of an impending or likely damaging event through an Early Warning System (EWS).

The fundamental problem in many LDC countries such as Gambia is that a complete EWS, which generates knowledge of the risks (vulnerability & hazard), has capacity to monitor, analyze and forecast hazards, provides communication and dissemination of alerts and warnings, either does not exist or does not function as well as it ought to be relevant and useful for long-term planning, management and risk reduction activities. In the Gambia, this status unnecessarily imperils lives and assets, recently for flood victims nationwide[2] and for farmers suffering from drought impacts on cereal production[3]. Reasons for this situation involve a lack of both hard and soft technologies and the capacity to utilise those technologies in an appropriate manner. This results in: i) a limited understanding of current and future risks; ii) limited monitoring and forecasting of climate-related hazards; iii) inappropriate communication and packaging of warnings; iv) restricted responses to impending disasters and v) constrained planning for slow-onset changes due to climate change that will require a transformational shift in economic development and risk reduction efforts. The infrastructure and technology on which to build a fully operational EWS for the Gambia including these services cannot be fully met from the existing GOTG/GEF/UNEP Project on the development of an effective national early warning system which has set the foundations for a EWS in the Gambia. An assessment of needs for EWS in the Gambia under the above project shows that the current GEF/LDCF funding is inadequate to provide the required ints to calculate these statistics from observations). Statistically significant trends in historical rainfall indicate decreases during the main rainy season from July to September. Future projections of rainfall also suggest a likely decrease in rainfall during the June to September period, though maximum daily rainfalls are likely to increase.

These hazardous events often lead to impacts on food security and health such as those seen recently5. Whereas flooding due to heavy rainfall over a short period of time has wreaked havoc in both urban and rural (river basins/watersheds) environments, with attendant impacts on health and the spread of disease4. Whilst the upswing in deaths attributed to floods in recent years may largely be due to population dynamics[5], many deaths can be avoided with sufficient early warning. These risks and associated losses are expected to increase in some regions due to the increased availability of atmospheric moisture and intensity of rainfall in the future[6].

Severe weather, associated with convective weather, atmospheric heating and moisture, will likely increase in many regions and can result in increases in rain, hail and winds, all of which are damaging to crops and infrastructure. Sea level rise is a problem for many low lying coastal areas, such as Banjul[7], where large populations often assemble and the slow and steady rise of mean sea level results in more frequent flooding and coastal erosion. Rises in temperature which affects all regions, results in an increase in the frequency of heat waves and extremely hot days/nights, which in turn affect the health of humans, ecosystems and urban environments.

Changes in the above climate-related hazards will negatively affect a range of sectors. Of particular concern is the agricultural sector which is an important component of the economy absp;